Royce Carroll
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could become a landmark event in American politics. Trump secured the Electoral College with victories across the most competitive states and, unlike in 2016, also narrowly won the popular vote, benefiting from economic anxiety and immigration concerns among voters and decreased turnout among more Democratic constituencies. As in many nations around the world, the lingering effects on prices of inflation earlier in President Joe Biden’s term diminished support for the Vice President Kamala Harris, despite high inflation itself having subsided.
The election signalled further realignment in the US similar to that observed in many contemporary democracies, with populist, culturally conservative, working-class voters coalescing into a somewhat more coherent bloc. Immigration was salient in maintaining and mobilizing Trump’s base, and to some extent in attracting new supporters. The makeup of the electorate favored Trump, with the proportion of white voters increasing. However, this also coincided with a notable increase in support from Latino and Black voters, particularly among men. Democrats, meanwhile, made further gains with college-educated voters, solidifying a long-term trend toward a partisan education divide and Republicans gaining in working-class support.
Among the implications of the election is the potential to create a more powerful US presidency than seen in modern times. The 2024 election further deepened the Republican Party’s transformation under Trump’s leadership. Leading up to the general election, Trump easily obtained the party nomination and Trump’s daughter-in-law became party co-chair, while the 2024 Republican platform reflected strong unity around MAGA branding and policy positions. Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as vice presidential nominee further reinforced the MAGA movement within the party, with Vance representing the emergence of a new generation of populist Republican leadership.
Trump also has much more influence over the Republican Party within Congress, where Republicans secured control of both the House and Senate. Unlike in Trump’s first term, where there was a degree of internal party conflict, Republicans have largely unified around his leadership. Trump’s populist MAGA movement has become dominant within in the party, and alignment with Trump has become politically necessary for Republican politicians. Because a significant portion of Republican primary voters are intensely loyal to Trump, opposition from Republican elected officials to Trump’s agenda would come at a considerable political cost. Many of those who challenged Trump since 2016 have already been defeated in primaries or have retired from politics, leaving very few remaining in Congress.
In the House, where Republicans have had majority control since 2022, Speaker Mike Johnson was selected in 2023 following a revolt against a more establishment predecessor. While having faced some criticism from some of Trump’s supporters, Johnson has been a consistent proponent of Trumps’ political agenda. The Senate Republicans chose a more establishment figure, John Thune, as Senate Majority Leader over alternatives considered more aligned with Trump, but he too has indicated strong support for Trump’s agenda.
Even with control of Congress, there are institutional constraints that remain in place. Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, such that minor party defections in the House could derail votes. In the Senate, Republicans have only a 53-seat majority and thus will be constrained by the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold for non-budgetary legislation. Although the cloture rule that enables the filibuster could be changed to allow the majority greater power, incoming Majority Leader Thune has indicated the rule will not be eliminated. For now, to enact their 100-day agenda, Republicans plan to leverage tools like budget reconciliation to bypass the filibuster for fiscal policies and the Congressional Review Act to reverse Biden-era regulations.
While partisan polarization has dominated legislative politics for decades, the emerging dynamics driving Congressional politics will likely revolve less around traditional ideological divisions or policy preferences. Rather, the parties are structuring more around support for and opposition to Trump himself and the cultural identity markers associated with the MAGA movement. This departs not only from the historical model of locally focused Congressional behavior, but also from organizing congress to build political brands based on national policy agendas.
The pattern of executive appointments also contrasts with Trump’s first term, with an emphasis on centralizing control within the executive branch by nominating loyalists for the cabinet and other executive posts, including controversial picks for key positions. Although this has prompted concerns from several Senate Republicans, Trump will most likely obtain a cabinet with strong, if not uniform, alignment with his personal priorities, and will face limited resistance from Congressional Republicans. It is also expected that Trump will seek greater political control deeper within the federal bureaucracy as well.
The Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority likely will enable Trump greater scope in executive actions, notably in areas such as immigration enforcement and regulatory reform. While this court has not always been supportive of presidential power, with three justices appointed by Trump and more likely in the upcoming term, judicial constraints may be more limited than seen in recent history.
The relationship between federal and state governments will likely become increasingly consequential. While most Republican-controlled states will likely strongly support Trump’s federal initiatives, Democratic-led states have signalled legal and administrative strategies to attempt to counter the effects of potential federal policy changes. The interaction between federal authority and state powers could therefore be the source of significant litigation and implementation challenges, although this may be limited by the political makeup of the federal judiciary.
Together, the convergence of executive authority, unified party control of government institutions, and a politically aligned judiciary may represent a significant shift in the American political system’s institutional dynamics. Observers have noted structural parallels with other nations that have experienced periods of populist and nationalist governments, including comparisons with Italy and Hungary. This has also prompted potential shifts in international alignments, with leaders in various nations recalibrating their diplomatic and strategic relationships with the United States, while nationalist and populist politicians see opportunity in the emerging international environment.
Overall, the 2024 election may prove a pivotal moment in American politics. A populist coalition has emerged behind Republicans that has proven electorally successful and has the potential to persist beyond Trump’s leadership. It is currently opposed by a fragile and extremely broad coalition, which may struggle to maintain a unified front across its diverse constituencies. Whether these patterns stabilize over the next four years will determine if the politics of America’s political institutions will be fundamentally changed.
