Yanina Welp

Alberto Fernández, a peronist leader from the Justicialista Party (PJ) took office on December 10, 2019, after winning the presidential elections as candidate for the Everyone’s Front coalition. Former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) from the Republican Proposal (PRO), supported by the Together for Change alliance (which included the historic Radical Civic Union party, among others) was defeated in the first round. The formula Fernández-Cristina Fernández de Kirchner received 48% of the votes against the 40% reached by Macri-Miguel Angel Pichetto.  

From the inaugural presidential speech Alberto Fernández called for consensus, pursuing to calm down  polarization between kirchneristas and the opposition, but he also made explicit the pressing economic situation faced by the country. The main goal of the new government was then to renegotiate the conditions of the external debt in order to postpone payments and been able to focus resources on the reactivation of the economy and the fight against poverty. According to the Observatory of Social Debt of the Argentine Catholic University, UCA, in December 40.8% of the population was in poverty –32% of households– and 8.9% in extreme poverty.

The coronavirus lands in Ezeiza Airport

There is plenty of challenges in the management of this crisis: there is not (yet) vaccination; many aspects related to contagion are still unknown; the health system in many Latin American countries is quite weak, and Argentina is not an exception; furthermore, confinment strongly affects the economy, with even worse consequences in countries already facing a deep crisis. 

Other serious pandemics that are being experienced in Latin America, such as sika in Central America, or dengue in the Argentine case, are endemic. Covid19 came from outside and is perceived as an external challenge. Although there are still some doubts, the latest scientific reports indicate that the coronavirus would have jumped from an animal (surely a bat or a pangolin) to a human being in an alive animal markets of Wuhan, China. Dengue in Argentina (also with a strong presence in Paraguay, Brazil and Colombia)  affects mainly low-class population; the issue is not a minor one, both as a health problem but also as a socio-political dispute. Just as an illustration a Mexican governor gave a conference noting that there was no need to worry because the virus attacked the wealthy, those who “come by plane from Europe or China”. At the level of discourse, a first challenge for the Argentinian government, as well as for others in the region, was to explain to what extent there was a risk for the whole population.  

Unlike Mexico and Brazil, where presidents neglected the risks, the Argentinian response was quick and aligned with other Latin American governments such as those of Panama, Peru, Colombia or Uruguay. During the week of March 9, as soon as the alarming data coming from Italy (especially in the Lombardy region) and Spain (especially Madrid) got attention, the Fernandez’ government created a crisis committee. That week 56 infected and 2 deaths were registered in the country. After quick twists and turns in the discussion of decisions such as closing schools, on Sunday, March 15, the cessation of face-to-face classes and the closing of borders was decreed. The president announced it surrounded by governors, representatives of the opposition and mayors.

The state of alarm

On Thursday 19, March, with 128 cases the state of alert was declared. The president explained it with a public speech. Alertness is regulated by Law 27287, which defines it as a state declared prior to the manifestation of a threat under monitoring, which allows specific decisions to be made. This first measure would apply until March 29, but then it was extended twice. At the moment its relaxation is discussed given the economic pressure.

Fernández is having an intensive agenda these days, meeting bussinessmen from tourism, construction and other sectors as well as giving thanks to the army, announcing a proposal for renegotiating the external debt and giving public information in person about the evolution of the pandemia. On 11 April he announced that the measures had worked and his team was discussing a second fase defined as ‘managed quarantine’ which would allow, in communication with governors, to identify places where a comunitarian quarantine could be organized (this, specially considering rural areas where no case has been detected). (Notice that this presentation was responded by President Sebatián Piñera from Chile, accusing Fernández of lying with the data).

On 18 April, according to the John Hopkins University database there are 2758 infected and 129 died. The quarantine seems to work limiting propagation while some industries are working on producing respirators and provisional hospitals are been built. 

The decision making process 

Although the president has appeared surrounded by authorities and members of the opposition, all the measures have been taken by Decretos de Necesidad y Urgencia (emergency and necessity decrees’, DNU). The DNU is an attribution of the president and there are no restrictions to continuing activating it for the state of alarm. The first announces performed a high level of consensus and were based on informal communication between the authorities, while the president stressed that his decisions were taken giving priority to the advice of scientists.

It can be pointed out that the procedures have been respected and there was no alternative, because Congress is closed at the moment. Argentina, as well as Uruguay and many countries elsewhere, does not contemplate in its regulations the possibility of holding virtual sessions. In addition, many MPs by age are among the risk groups. However, it should be noted that in Paraguay the Parliament has opened the way to have virtual sessions.

The Supreme Court of Justice decreed the state of exceptionality and is not working. In the provincial justice systems, the national directive is generally followed, although with some nuances between provinces and cities, for example regarding the mandatory use of the mask and the definition of essential services.

This implies that neither the Congress nor the judiciary are making any kind of formal accompaniment or supervision of the decisions made by the executive. The lower courts have been activated to respond to specific requests individual claims for mobility.

Final remarks

In my view this extraordinary situation is not likely to expand the presidential power neither will change the political and institutional environment for inter-branch relations. Formally the president is acting according to the law (and has enough competences to do it) while informally power in Argentina is distributed and dependent on agreements between governors, labour unions and or popular support. 

At the moment the president has managed to reach consensus and popular support but clearly the economical crisis will increase the economic pressure already face by many inhabitants, meaning that the popular support could decline. But whatever happens, is likely to be result of political conflicts not leading in power concentration or an autoritarian turn.